June 16, 2014
Years from now, we may well look back on this period as being the turning point.
For over a decade, we’ve predicted that the Great Unravelling would take place in phases: there would be initial crashes followed by a false recovery, then a series of major crashes followed by a long, painful trip to the bottom.
Along the way, the entire order of power around the globe would change dramatically. In addition, fiat currencies would ultimately collapse, and the period would be marked with tyranny and turmoil, dramatic inflation, a gold mania, currency and migration controls, confiscation of assets, and food riots. Quite a list.
Doug Casey has described the false recovery period as “the eye of the hurricane,” a term that he first began using in 2010. Most of us who have shared his view (Doug included) believed that the turning point—the point at which we exited the eye and re-entered the hurricane—would have occurred sooner than now. But we were premature. He has said, “I often confuse inevitable with imminent.” He’s not alone. Each of us who have made similar predictions have been premature with regard to the timing.
So, why should I now suggest that the turning point may be imminent? To answer that, let’s have a look at some recent events.
- Russia announced that Western sanctions will force them to use the ruble for international trade, demonstrating that the West have dramatically shot themselves in the foot with the imposition of sanctions.
- Europe confirmed that it does not endorse sanctions against Russia, as they will cause more damage to Europe than Russia.
- Russia has announced its refusal to comply with US FATCA demands.
- In Europe, elections indicate that EU citizens are moving away from the EU concept. In the UK, the UKIP party, running on a platform of removing the UK from the EU altogether, took over as the #1 party in England—the first time in modern history that neither Tories nor Labour won a British election.
- A new leader has been elected in India—a free-market thinker and the first leader not to be from the family that has ruled India since it became a nation in 1947.
- Glenn Greenwald, who chronicled the Edward Snowden leaks, stated that he is ready to publish an even greater revelation: the names of those Americans targeted by the NSA, very possibly revealing that the “war on terrorism” is actually a “tyranny over the citizenry.”
- Several Wall Street insiders went on record as predicting a 98% chance of a crash in the stock market this year.
- One of the world’s biggest bond fund managers, Jeffrey Gundlach, predicts market damage that will “far exceed the damage of 2008.”
- Insider Jim Rickards has stated that his predictions of disastrous developments to take place in 2015-2016 in his just-released book, The Death of Money, are coming “faster than I would have expected… Some of these catastrophic outcomes may come sooner than I wrote about.” (When insiders begin to acknowledge the death knell of the markets, the end cannot be far off.)
And of course, all of the above come in the wake of the biggest bombshell of all: the $400 billion gas supply agreement between China and Russia that threatens to end the US dollar as the petro-currency and the world’s default currency.
As predicted, all the seams of the dirigible are giving way, all at the same time.
Just prior to 2008, when Doug Casey began regularly referring to the coming “Greater Depression,” he was often dismissed. The term he coined was just a bit too accurate to be digestible by most people: a depression like the Great Depression, only of greater magnitude. Ridiculous; impossible… yet it is coming to pass.
So, if, indeed, we are right at the tipping point, what will that mean in practical terms?
Over the years, I’ve stated repeatedly that, as we enter the third and most catastrophic phase of the Greater Depression, “Events will increase in both velocity and magnitude.”
I cannot overemphasize the importance of this statement.
As we move back into the hurricane, the events will be of greater velocity and magnitude than they have been, as governments become ever-more desperate and the tension between governments mounts. As each jurisdiction announces each desperate move to save it from drowning (severe tariffs, military interventions, currency devaluations, etc.), other jurisdictions will provide knee-jerk reactions in order to survive. The ball will get bounced back and forth, ever more violently, until the point of collapse is reached.
And, at the bottom, what is the world likely to look like?
Well, for a start, there will be great turmoil. As some jurisdictions lose a portion of their power (over both other jurisdictions and their own people), we can expect extreme unrest, disorder, and violence. Martial law will most certainly be proclaimed in several jurisdictions.
As currencies fail, new ones will be created quickly, but may not be accepted. Black markets are a virtual certainty. Food and fuel will be in short supply in some countries for brief periods, and possibly for extended periods. Riots are likely to occur spontaneously, like popcorn, across the map, with food riots being the most critical.
Lines on maps are likely to change as sovereign nations fragment. Turf wars are likely to become common. Changes in the leadership of countries is likely to occur frequently as opposing groups vie for control. (Think: Argentina in December of 2001, when there were five presidents in the course of one month.)
And what does this mean to the individual? It means that, in many countries, life could be very unpredictable and very dangerous. The wisest course of action might be for those who feel that they will be close to the fray, to have a “Plan B,” in case it becomes necessary to be elsewhere for a time.
To do so would mean that since, by that time, capital controls are likely to be in place, an emergency stash would already need to be in place in a jurisdiction that is well away from the turmoil. And a place to stay would need to have been researched and made available, should it become necessary.
Should the reader believe that he presently lives in a risky location, he would want to be prepared to the extent that all he need do in the case of sudden dramatic change would be to stuff some clothes into a carry-on, lock the door, and say goodbye until the emergency period blows over.
The time we have been predicting for the last decade or so appears to be quite close now. As any farmer in Kansas would attest, when the twister is on the horizon and clearly heading his way, it is time to prepare—to bring in the lawn chairs, shutter up the house, and get some provisions down into the root cellar. If the twister passes by, little will have been lost, but if the twister indeed hits, the preparation could prove essential.
IM Editor’s Note: Things can change quickly. New options emerge, while others disappear. This is why it’s so important to have the most up-to-date and accurate information possible when formulating your international diversification strategy. That’s where International Man comes in.
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